Putin forced to call up mercenaries as Russian invasion stalls
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A former Russian Government minister has come forward to say he believes Vladimir Putin has “miscalculated” his invasion of Ukraine and that the belligerent dictator is not “insane” but “immoral”. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which began on February 24 has sparked international outcry not seen since the Cold War and has isolated Russia from the West as hardline sanctions are brought on the country.
While western powers such as NATO and the EU have stopped short of joining the ground war that continues in Ukraine, they have thrown themselves behind the nation by placing severe sanctions on Russia and funding its effort to defend itself.
Russia boasts one of the most powerful militaries in the world, and with a leader that is hellbent on restoring Russia’s international legacy.
He has also long believed Ukraine is not a real, sovereign nation, and is actually part of Russia – an idea that comes from his glory tinted memories of the Soviet Union.
Andrei Kozyrev, who served under Boris Yeltsin as the Minister for Foreign Affairs and is credited with developing Russia’s foreign policy after the fall of the Soviet Union, has delivered his verdict on why he thinks President Putin is doomed to fail.
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In a lengthy Twitter thread, Mr Kozyrev said the invasion of Ukraine boils down to three points:
- Ukraine’s condition as a country
- The Russian military’s condition
- The West’s geopolitical condition
Elaborating, he said: “Ukraine’s condition. Putin spent the last 20 years believing that Ukraine is not a real nation and, at best, should be a satellite state.
“Maidan ended any hope of keeping Ukraine independent and pro-Kremlin. He thought the West was behind it.”
Maidan refers to Euromaidan, a protest in Ukraine in 2013 that led to the ousting of pro-Russia Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.
Mr Kozyrev argues if Russia could not keep Ukraine in its sphere on influence covertly, he would need to do it overtly.
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He says President Putin has been wrongly convinced by his propagandists that Ukraine is run by “Nazi-Bandera junta”, giving him the pretext to invade Ukraine on a mission of de-nazifying the country.
In his second point, Mr Kozyrev argues much of Russia’s military budget was “stolen and spent on mega yachts in Cyprus” instead of on strengthening Russia’s military might.
In his third point, Mr Kozyrev says the Russian elite believed its own propaganda that President Biden is “mentally inept”, and that the EU was weak because of “how toothless their sanctions were in 2014”.
But Mr Kozyrev says President Putin “miscalculated on all three” and the President is not “insane”, instead he is “simply wrong and immoral”.
He elaborates: “In my opinion, he is rational. Given that he is rational, I strongly believe he will not intentionally use nuclear weapons against the West.
“I say intentionally because indiscriminate shelling near a nuclear power plant can cause an unintentional nuclear disaster in Ukraine.
“I will take it a step further. The threat of nuclear war is another example of his rationality.
“The Kremlin knows it can try to extract concessions, whether from Ukraine or the West, by saber-rattling its last remaining card in the deck: nuclear weapons.
“The ultimate conclusion here is that the West should not agree to any unilateral concessions or limit its support of Ukraine too much for the fear of nuclear war.”
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