US Election: Who is leading the presidential race? How close is the presidential race?

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The US election on Tuesday, November 3, will determine who will be US President for the next four years either giving incumbent US leader Donald Trump another term or giving Democratic hopeful Joe Biden a chance to lead the country. Mr Trump triumphed in 2016 despite losing the popular vote, but who is leading the presidential race right now and how close is the race?

Mr Trump and Mr Biden will go head to head on November 3.

National polls put Mr Biden in the lead with 52.1 percent of Americans in support of his bid according to national poll averages from poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight.

This is 8.8 percentage points ahead of the incumbent leader, with Mr Trump having 43.2 percent support on average.

Mr Biden has been consistently in the lead throughout the presidential race, with his poll average remaining at more than 50 percent since October 4.

Record numbers of early voters have turned out for the upcoming election prompting speculation about a record turnout for this year.

More than 87 million Americans have cast ballots in the upcoming presidential election according to the US Elections Project at the University of Florida.

This is setting the stage for the highest participation rate in any US election in more than a century.

This record-breaking pace equates to more than 60 percent of the total 2016 turnout reflecting the interest in the upcoming election amid the coronavirus outbreak.

The US Elections Project has found total votes by party registration are as follows:

  • Democrats: 46.2 percent
  • Republicans: 30.0 percent
  • Minor: 0.6 percent
  • No Party Affiliation: 23.2 percent.

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Experts have predicted turnout for this upcoming election could surpass more than the 138 million who voted in 2016.

Ahead of the 2016 election, 47 million early voters turned out.

The highest number of early voters have cast their ballots in California where more than 9.7 million have turned out at the time of writing.

This is followed by Texas and Florida where nine and 7.8m have voted respectively.

The latest poll published by Survey Monkey was conducted from October 27 to 29 and found support for Mr Biden was 52 percent.

This is six percentage points ahead of Mr Trump’s result at 46 percent.

The penultimate poll from Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research of 1,500 people shortened the difference between the two contenders.

Mr Biden won 49 percent of support from pollsters, compared to 46 percent for Mr Trump.

As polls stand, Mr Biden is currently in line to win at least two swing states: Michigan and Wisconsin.

The key states for the upcoming 2020 election are in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The following polling average for each state according to 270toWin are as follows:

  • Arizona: Mr Biden – 47 percent, Mr Trump – 46 percent.
  • Florida: Mr Biden – 50 percent, Mr Trump – 45 percent.
  • Georgia: Mr Biden – 49 percent, Mr Trump – 46 percent.
  • Michigan: Mr Biden – 51 percent, Mr Trump – 43 percent.
  • Minnesota: Mr Biden – 50 percent, Mr Trump – 42 percent.
  • North Carolina: Mr Biden – 48 percent, Mr Trump – 47 percent.
  • Pennsylvania: Mr Biden – 51 percent, Mr Trump – 45 percent.
  • Wisconsin: Mr Biden – 52 percent, Mr Trump – 43 percent.

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