What is a no deal Brexit, how could it affect house prices and when might a deal with the EU be agreed?

But just what does a "No Deal" mean for the UK?

What is a no-deal Brexit?

A no-deal British departure from the European Union currently can mean a number of things.

In the current climate, it would mean no formal agreement had been reached by the UK and the EU during the negotiating phase which comes to an end on March 29, 2019.

The negotiations are taking place under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

The chances of a no-deal Brexit being in place by next year is now more likely than ever after a draft deal agreed by Theresa May’s Cabinet at Chequers last month looks likely to crumble.

What happens if there is no Brexit deal?

Mrs May is fighting back against opponents of her blueprint for Brexit, saying Parliament will have to choose between her proposal and crashing out of the European Union without a deal.

May said Monday September 16 on the BBC that if rebel lawmakers shoot down a deal between her government and the EU, "the alternative to that will be having no deal."

A no-deal would mean scrapping a 21-month transitionary exit period on March 29, 2019, and the exit would be immediate.

An instant exit would, however, mean that the UK would have no legal obligations to pay a £39billion divorce bill to the EU, according to a House of Commons report.

While this would leave a gaping hole in the EU budget and sour relations, it would be a massive saving for the UK.

A no-deal would also see residency rights for EU nationals in the UK potentially disappear overnight.

Without any residency rights agreed beforehand, a no-deal would also affect UK nationals residing in the EU.

In theory, these people would become "third country nationals", meaning they would be subject to domestic immigration rules.

A no-deal would however put Northern Ireland out of the EU, with no arrangements in place on how to manage 300 checkpoints on the 310 mile border.

The EU would want Ireland to impose customs and other checks to protect the bloc’s border – something Northern Ireland has said it will not do.

Thus, no-deal could blow a hole in the Good Friday Agreement, with pressure on all sides to find a compromise.

With no new trade agreement with the EU in place, the rules of the World Trade Organisation would come into effect.

A no-deal Brexit would see tariffs imposed on goods that the UK sends to the EU, and on goods the EU sends to the UK.

A no-deal would also mean Britain exits the single market for goods and agriculture, eliminating frictionless trade and introducing more red tape for businesses.

Customs checks on cross-Channel freight would cause havoc at ports, hitting food supplies and other goods.

In a pure no-deal scenario, businesses would lose their passporting rights, which allow them to sell their services across the EU without having to obtain licences in each individual country.

What is the government's latest Brexit advice?

The government is releasing a series of 'Technical notices' to help prepare British businesses and consumers for a no Deal scenario.

A second tranche of papers has now been released by the validity of British driving licences on the continent, roaming charges for mobile phones and the future of the European space and satellites programmes.

Anyone travelling to the EU should make sure they have at least six months left on their passport, although that will not apply to travel in Ireland.

People applying for a new passport after Brexit will continue to get burgundy passports for a while – although they will not say "European Union" on the front cover

Blue passports will start being issued from late 2019

The papers show:

  • Imports from Europe would be subject to customs duties and VAT from day one of a No Deal outcome
  • European banks will be able to operate in Britain for at least three years without any change
  • But UK institutions would have to strike their own deal to avoid being shut out of the EU market completely
  • Ministers are refusing to impose new checks on European medicines because they fear harming the NHS
  • Organic farmers could be badly hit because their goods would be shut out from the continent
  • Cigarette packets would get new warning images – because the current ones belong to Brussels
  • Civil servants are ramping up their work on No Deal with thousands more officials involved in the plans

What is the latest on Brexit?

The government has released a set of contingency plans outlining the impact of a no deal Brexit.

The 29 ‘technical notices’ drawn up by Whitehall cover areas including free trade agreements after the split, fishing policy and rail transport.

Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab said the Government is still striving to strike a good deal with Brussels, but added the documents showed the “unlikely” prospect of no deal is being taken seriously.

The latest batch of documents reveal how the UK will immediately regain control of its waters in a no deal scenario.

Here are the recent big Brexit developments:

  • Theresa May backed her Chequers proposals and slapped down Boris Johnson following his repeated attacks on her Brexit policies at the Tory party conference
  • Boris Johnson gave a Brexit rallying cry by insisting the government "chuck Chequers" in his speech on  October 2 at a ConservativeHome fringe event in Birmingham.
  • The DUP threatened to vote down the Budget – potentially bringing down Mrs May altogether – in a Brexit protest if Northern Ireland remains in the customs union and the rest of the UK leaves.
  • No10 refused a renewed EU demand for Britain to stay in a customs union indefinitely until a future trade deal is struck.




Source: Read Full Article